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The Chinese African swine fever epidemic could increase global meat prices



Of these, 15,000 were killed. Another 5,000 were destroyed for security reasons

"It started with several pigs a day, then it was hundreds," said Sun, a pig farmer and an agricultural entrepreneur from Hebei Province in China. "Finally, 800 pigs would die in one day." The Dutch bank, Rabobank, which lends to the global agricultural sector, estimates that the country's pig population could fall by a third in 2019 – up to 200 million animals – through a combination of disease and culling

In the context, this is almost as many pigs as in the US and Europe.

  A photo of one of the Sun Dawu pig farms in March 201[ads1]8, before an epidemic

The virus is harmless to humans, but fatal to pigs. [1] Originates in Africa, outbreaks were recorded in Eastern Europe and Russia before they first appeared in China last August.

Since then, it has spread to other Asian countries, including Vietnam and Cambodia. "Good control" of the epidemic. In a press conference last month, Beijing said the ASF is not expanding as quickly as before

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), China's central authorities have taken the right measures to bring the virus under control.

"They did everything they could to cope with the disease. They had a plan, they had a strategy, they reacted very vigorously," said Vincent Martin, FAO representative in China. preventive teams working on the Sun Dawa pig farm after the outbreak that killed more than 15,000 of their animals by March 2019. "data-src-mini =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190506144417-02- swine-flu-china-small-169.jpg "data-src-xsmall =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190506144417-02-swine-flu-china-medium-plus-169.jpg "data-src-small =" http://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190506144417-02-swine-flu-china-large-169.jpg "data-src-medium =" // cdn .cnn.com / cnnnext / dam / assets / 190506144417-02-swine-flu-china-exlarge-169.jpg "data-src-large =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190506144417- 02-swine-flu-china-super-169.jpg "data-src-full16x9 =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190506144417-02-swine-flu-china-full-169.jpg "data-src-mini1x1 =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190506144417-02-swine-flu-china-small-11.jpg "data-demand-load =" not-loaded "data -eq-pts = "mini: 0, xsmall: 221, small: 308, medium: 461, large: 781" src = "data: image / gif; base64, R0lGODlhEAAJAJEAAAAAAP /////// w AAACH5BAEAAAIALAAAAAAQAAkAAAIKlI + py + 0Po5yUFQA7 "/>

Farms Smoothed

outbreaks may be greater than estimates of officials, as some farmers say CNN that the disease is not always recognized locally. 19659002] Sun said initial testing provincial officials at his Hebei farm were negative for ASF. After he sent photos of dead animals online, the country's disease prevention and control center is tested and confirmed to carry the virus.

Also in Hebei, fellow farmer Zhang Haixia watched all her 600 pigs die. The official cause of death was regular swine flu. "Local officials were afraid to be responsible," CNN said. "We were threatened with consequences if we told the higher governments in the government. They worry about losing their jobs."

CNN contacted Hebei authorities for comment but did not receive a reply

  Pig breeding Zhang Haixia crying over a blank pen after losing all the animals on African swine flu early in 2019.

Martin from FAO warned that it could take years to break out completely.

"I'm not sure he can say he's under control because we know how complicated the disease is," he said. "We have experience in other countries where it took years to manage these diseases." 19659002]

Pork Deficiency in the World

One of the major challenges China faces in terms of ASF content is that its pig market is fragmented, Martin said there are thousands of small farms that may not have the right biosecurity measures needed to control disease spread

Another complication is that the virus can survive in pork products for several months, which means that it can be reintroduced

  Pig swine threatens the pigmeat industry because China Prepares for the Year of the Pig

And it's not just the producers who are hurting The epidemic could also have a wider economic impact: China is the world's largest consumer of pork, the basis for most of its 1.4 billion people.

According to government forecasts, the price of pork could rise to record levels in the second half of 2019, as demand exceeds supply

Analysts say there is not enough pork in the world to meet the expected Chinese shortage and consumers.

Rabobank's report predicts an "unprecedented" shift in global protein supply to China to cover this deficiency.

  Swine Fever caused confusion in the production of pork in China, and the world feels it
"This shift is likely to cause unexpected product downtime on markets that were previously supplied by suppliers … The result will be higher global protein prices, "wrote report author Christine McCracken.

Pork producers in Europe and the US are already starting to increase their supply to China, even though US exports are subject to a 62% b tariff. because of the trade struggle with China

The lunar calendar is 2019 the year of a pig, a good year, and it is different from the Chinese pigmeat industry


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