- Hurricane conditions are expected on Friday in parts of the Bahamas.
- Isaias has raised hurricane warnings in parts of Florida.
- The first effects occurred in some parts of Florida on Saturday.
- The prognosis of this system is still uncertain due to several factors.
- Isaias may eventually affect a significant extent of the east coast north of New England early next week.
Hurricane Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is expected to strengthen as it watches Saturdays in the Bahamas and then moves close to Florida this weekend, followed by the east coast north of England next week.
The hurricane warning was issued for part of the east coast of Florida, from Boca Raton to the Volusia / Brevard County Line. Hurricane conditions are expected late on Saturday or Sunday.
The hurricane watch has expanded, now covering parts of Florida north of the Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler / Volusia County Line, and for South Florida from Boca Raton to Hallendale County. Hurricane watches are usually issued 48 hours before the expected first occurrence of wind operating in tropical storms, which makes it difficult or threatens to prepare outdoors.
(MORE Hurricane conditions you need to know)
Hurricane warnings continue in the Bahamas, including Nassau, Freeport and Abacos, where hurricane conditions are expected on Saturday.
Strong winds and rain zones attract the southeastern Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. Wind Turks and Caicos measures wind winds above 50 km / h late Thursday night and early Friday. Conditions are deteriorating in the central and northern Bahamas.
Heavy rains caused severe flooding in several areas of Puerto Rico. The rainfall was just under 4.5 inches in San Juan on Thursday. According to local crisis management, more fallen trees, landslides and floods have been reported in southwestern Puerto Rico. flooding was recorded using USGS gauges at several locations in Puerto Rico.
(NEWS: Deadly Isaias has extensive damage throughout the Dominican Republic in Puerto Rico)
Below is an overview of what we know about the prediction of a possible impact on the US and the Caribbean.
Florida, east coast of the USA
The planned NHC route below shows that this system could be located off Florida’s east coast this weekend. Isaiah then gradually moves northeast near the east coast. Compared to previous forecasts, this is a slight shift to the west.
There are still many reasons for this uncertainty in terms of both speed and intensity.
It is still too early to pinpoint the future trajectory and intensity of this system with regard to the mainland United States, and therefore the potential impacts, including rain, wind and storms.
Here’s what we’re actively focusing on now:
Thoughts on intensity
The hurricane is expected to fight for somewhat unfavorable winds at higher levels – creating what meteorologists call a wind shear – along its trajectory from the Bahamas and beyond. This is usually a nemesis of tropical cyclones.
However, hot water is plentiful near the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States, a factor that would encourage slow intensification.
This sum of these two competitive factors should lean towards a slower intensification, as shown by the National Hurricane forecast.
Further north, interaction with the Florida mainland on Sunday may weaken Isaias.
Follow the reflections
The projected track relies heavily on elements of control in the atmosphere – high Bermuda and the upper stage in the wind flow through the Mississippi Valley. How strong Isaias is early next week also plays a role.
There are also great uncertainties about how quickly Isaiah moves near the east coast. Some computer model predictions are faster, others a little slower. So the timing of it all can change.
Isaiah is expected to head north, then turn northeast this weekend early next week. But exactly when and how sharply this turnaround will occur will have a major impact on the impacts on Florida and along the east coast. And it depends on the exact orientation and strength of these elements of management.
The National Weather Service will issue additional weather balloons in the coming days to help identify these atmospheric control agents. Hurricane hunters are taking samples of the surrounding area and north of Isaiah tonight to help improve the forecast.
So far, the forecast is expected on the east coast of Florida, but it could move east or west.
Isaiah is expected to arrive near South Florida very early on Sunday as a hurricane and probably Central or Northeast Florida on Sunday afternoon. This would result in at least some rain, wind, high surfing and coastal floods or storm surges this weekend in Florida.
A dangerous storm surge is also possible along the east coast of Florida.
Here is the current forecast from the National Hurricane:
- Jupiter entrance to Ponte Vedra FL beach: 2 to 4 feet
- North Miami Beach to Jupiter Tributary FL: 1-3 ft
From there, he could cross the Carolinas on Monday and then quickly sweep near parts of the northeast coast north of New England on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The bells generated by Isaiah could start arriving along the southeast coast of the United States as soon as possible on Saturday, leading to high surfing and the danger of ripping currents. The surf will remain elevated as long as Isaias does not pass.
Further north, here is an early look at when winds with a tropical storm are possible.
Residents along the east coast from Florida to Maine should closely monitor the development of this system and have their plans in place. go, if necessary.
Weather forecast for the Caribbean, Bahamas
As mentioned above, Isaias produces strong winds and gusts of heavy rain in the northern and central Bahamas.
Precipitation of 4 to 8 inches is likely in parts of the Bahamas with up to 2 inches in parts of Cuba. Life-threatening flash floods and landslides are possible.
Two to four inches of rainfall is possible from South Florida to east-central Florida on Friday through Monday, with a total of 6 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Early next week, heavy rains may spread to East Carolina.
Conditions will gradually improve on Friday in the central and southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos as Isaias moves north.
Dangerous severe storms up to 3 to 5 feet above ground level are predicted by the National Hurricane Center in areas where the Bahamas is blowing coastal winds.
Life-threatening surfing and ripping currents are expected in Florence this weekend.
Check with us on Weather.com for important information about Isaias.
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