While coronavirus deaths in the United States are rising rapidly, public health experts see the good news flashing: A second increase in confirmed cases seems to be receding.
Scientists do not celebrate in any way. They warn that the trend is driven by four large, hard-hit locations – Arizona, California, Florida and Texas – and that cases are rising in almost all 30 states, with the center at the center. gravity appears to move from the solar belt toward the Midwest.
Some experts ask whether the apparent improvement in the number of cases will last. It is also not clear when deaths will begin to decline. COVID-19 deaths do not move perfectly with the infection curve, for the simple reason that disease and death from the virus can last for weeks.
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The future? “I think it’s very difficult to predict,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s leading expert on infectious diseases.
The virus has claimed more than 150,000 lives in the United States, by far the highest number of victims in the world, and more than half a million other people worldwide.
The average number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States has risen more than 25 percent in the past week, from 843 to 1,057. There were 253 deaths in Florida on Thursday, the third straight one-day record, while there were 322 new deaths in Texas and in California. 391 people.
The number of confirmed infections nationwide peaked at 4.4 million, which could be higher due to testing restrictions and the fact that some people are infected without feeling sick.
– Collateral virus damage increased as the US economy contracted a staggering annual rate of 32.9% between April and June – by far the worst quarterly drop in records in 1947. More than 1.4 million Americans fired claimed unemployment benefits last year. week, further evidence that employers are still laying off jobs five months after the crisis.
– In the midst of an outbreak and bad economic news, President Trump for the first time publicly raised the idea of postponing the presidential election on 3 November, warning without evidence that increased voting through voting will lead to fraud. Changing election day would require an act of Congress, and the idea met with immediate opposition from both top Republicans and Democrats.
– Herman Cain, a former pizza CEO who tried unsuccessfully in 2012 to become the first black candidate to receive a Republican presidential nomination, died of complications from the virus at the age of 74.
Based on a 7-day moving average, daily cases of coronavirus in the United States dropped from 67,317 on July 22 to 65,266 on Wednesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That’s a drop of about 3 percent.
Researchers prefer two weeks of data to go in the same direction to tell if the trend is true. “But I think it’s real, yes,” said Ira Longini, a biostatist at the University of Florida who monitors coronaviruses and is the source of the disease prognosis used by the government.
The Associated Press found that the seven-day moving average of new cases was paid in California for two weeks and decreased in Arizona, Florida and Texas.
Trends in Arizona, Texas and Florida are “starting to bend a little,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health researcher at Johns Hopkins. These states, along with California, pour a large number of cases into the National Assembly every day. As these places move forward, the whole country looks better, she said.
Also, in another possible glimmer of hope, the percentage of tests returning positively to the virus in the United States has fallen from an average of 8.5% to 7.8% in the past week.
But with an outbreak in the Midwest, the Democratic Wisconsin government. Tony Evers has ordered masks to be worn nationwide for spikes in cases where he joins about 30 other states that have taken such measures.
The latest increase in cases took place in June, weeks after the reopening of states began after the fatal explosion of cases in and around New York in early spring. Earlier this month, the number of cases increased to 70,000 and more. Even after a few weeks, deaths began to rise sharply.
Some scholars believe that the recent settlement is the result of more people taking social distances and other measures.
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“I think a lot of them are people who have masks because they’re scared,” Longini said.
But Ali Khan, dean of the Nebraska College of Public Health, said the trend may be due to the natural dynamics of the virus, which scientists do not yet understand.
Without reliable testing and other measures to keep the virus under control, a third peak is possible – or even likely – given that so far only an estimated 10 percent of Americans have been infected. And there is no reason to believe that the vertex cannot be greater than the first two.
“The disease will continue to hopscotch around until it finds more severe – susceptible people – than any good fire,” said Khan, a former top infectious disease investigator at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Fauci said he was “a little reassuring” on the recent plateau. However, the stabilization of cases around 60,000 is “still at a very high level”. He said he also fears an increase in the percentage of tests that return positively in states like Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Indiana.
“It’s a warning sign that you may have seen an increase,” Fauci said. “They really have to jump.”
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